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ADP data beats expectations

US ADP private sector employment rose by 90,000 in September. That was above the 36,000 increase revised down for August and also beat Dow Jones’ forecast of 68,000.

ADP said hiring picked up again after a brief slowdown, giving the US labor market a more stable picture. ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson described the report as a "strong report," adding that annual core wage growth was 3.2% and total wage growth was 4.7%.

Which sectors drove hiring?

The overall increase came from services, which added 59,000 jobs, while goods-producing companies contributed 31,000. The biggest boost came from education and health services, though job losses continued in some areas.

Main areas of growth

  • Education and health services: 55,000
  • Leisure and hospitality: 22,000
  • Manufacturing: 17,000
  • Construction: 15,000

Areas that lost jobs

  • Financial activities: minus 16,000
  • Professional and business services: minus 11,000
  • Natural resources and mining: minus 1,000

Regionally, the Northeast stood out with a gain of 56,000. By company size, firms with 50 to 499 employees posted the strongest increase, adding a net 54,000 jobs.

What does the data say for the Fed and markets?

The report emerged as one of the indicators supporting Federal Reserve (Fed) officials’ view that the labor market has generally remained solid after growth concerns in 2025. In the same context, policymakers were said to see persistent inflation as the bigger risk, and the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage points in early September.

The ADP report is watched as a leading indicator ahead of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls report due Friday. Wall Street expects nonfarm payrolls to rise by 84,000 and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.1%.

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