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The market is growing, but returns are uncertain

For anyone looking to build a watch collection, experts offer a clear warning: most luxury models do not rise in value over time and often lose value on the secondary market. According to Statista, the global watch market is worth more than $135 billion and is expected to grow at an annual rate of more than 5.6%.

Even so, experts say buying watches should first and foremost be seen as a hobby. Charles Tian, founder of WatchCharts, which tracks secondhand watch prices, says profits are possible through buying and selling, but watches are not expected to consistently outperform traditional investments such as the S&P 500 Index over the long term.

There are notable exceptions in the market. For example, the retail price of a Rolex Submariner starts at around $10,000, while its secondhand value roughly tripled from 2010 to the 2022 pandemic-era peak. But according to WatchPatrol data, well-regarded models such as the Breitling Superocean 42 and Panerai Luminor GMT posted clear losses in value over the past year.

Which brands hold their value better?

According to the annual report by Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, hundreds of brands operate in the Swiss watch industry, but sales are concentrated among a handful of major names. Rolex, Cartier, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Omega and Richard Mille are among the leaders. Experts say brand reputation, rarity, place of manufacture and documented ownership history are among the biggest factors affecting resale prices.

  • Rolex stands out with new models starting at about $6,200.
  • For Audemars Piguet, the starting price is around $11,300.
  • At Patek Philippe, new watches start at about $18,000.

The point experts emphasize most often is that these three brands tend to offer stronger value retention. Still, buying a popular model at list price from an authorized dealer is often not easy; waiting lists and limited allocations driven by strong demand can narrow the number of potentially profitable opportunities.

Entry-level options to consider

For those wanting to start a collection on a smaller budget, there are still options. Vintage Seiko dive watches, Omega sports models and modern Tudor lines are among the segments being watched. The discontinued Seiko SKX007 is said to trade on the secondary market at around $257, while models such as the Hamilton Khaki Field and Tissot PRX offer entry points in the roughly $400 range.

Discounts are available on the secondary market, but so are risks

According to experts, the most sensible price for most watches is usually found on the secondhand market. Tian says a good-condition used watch can often be bought for 40-50% less than the retail price for many brands. But that discount comes with no warranty, an unclear service history and the risk of unexpected repair bills.

How are cost and counterfeit risks managed?

Because mechanical watches wear down with regular use, maintenance is part of the total cost. Experts say a mechanical watch typically needs servicing every 7-10 years; if the work is simple, the cost may stay at $200-$300, but for complicated or high-end models the bill can rise into the thousands.

Key points experts highlight

  • The watch’s original dial, serial number, bracelet, box and papers can significantly affect its secondhand value.
  • Collectors are advised to store watches in a dry, secure environment away from magnets, excessive humidity and temperature changes.
  • In buying and selling, authorized dealers and reputable platforms should be preferred, and payment methods should allow chargebacks.
  • Experts also warn about not only fakes, but also “Franken” watches, which are assembled from parts of different timepieces.

The common view among experts is that the healthiest approach to buying watches is not to expect quick profits, but to move forward with a clear understanding of costs and liquidity risk. Despite the size of the market, gains for most buyers remain limited to a few elite brands and the right condition.

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