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Bitcoin climbs ahead of U.S. data

Bitcoin briefly moved above $86,885 on Friday before the U.S. employment report was released. The largest cryptocurrency by market value later pulled back to around $86,000, but still held gains of about 1.5% on the day. Since the start of October, it has risen by roughly 3%.

The main focus in trading was expectations for the U.S. labor market. In the market, the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%, while September nonfarm payrolls are forecast to slow to 90,000 from 162,000 in August.

Rally continues despite higher bond yields and dollar pressure

Sharp increases in U.S. bond yields this week were seen as the main factor limiting Bitcoin's upside. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond rose as high as a multi-year peak of 5.34%, pointing to higher borrowing costs. Because bond yields and bond prices move in opposite directions, rising yields signal tighter financial conditions.

Against that backdrop, Bitcoin spent much of the week trading in a range of $82,000 to $85,000, but broke above that band ahead of the jobs report. The move underscored how closely cryptocurrency prices continue to track the macro data calendar.

How dollar strength and euro weakness are affecting markets

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) briefly moved above 102 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in 18 months. A stronger dollar normally weighs on risk assets, making Bitcoin's gains especially notable.

Key indicators ahead of the data

  • Bitcoin tested $86,885 intraday.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34%.
  • The DXY index moved above 102.
  • The euro fell to around $1.12, its lowest level since May 2025.

Weakness in the euro was another sign of broad dollar strength. Markets are now focused on how the coming jobs data may affect Federal Reserve expectations and, in turn, the short-term direction of crypto assets.

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