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Apple stock diverges from the tech sell-off

Apple stock has stood out as one of investors’ relative safe-haven choices within technology as questions linger over the durability of the artificial intelligence theme and concerns grow about a broader sell-off in global rate-sensitive assets. The shares rose 2.6% on Tuesday despite a broad tech decline, and over the past month the iPhone maker has returned 7%, while the Nasdaq-100 rose just 1% over the same period.

According to a CNBC analysis using ThinkOrSwim data, the 30-day correlation between Apple and the Nasdaq-100 fell to a low of -0.86 on Thursday and was most recently measured at -0.82. With the company accounting for about 7.5% of the index, such an opposite move versus its tech peers points to a divergence not seen since 2005.

The year-to-date performance gap widened

Apple had lagged the Nasdaq during the first six months of the year. But after the latest rally, the stock’s year-to-date return has reached 20%, compared with 15% for the Nasdaq-100. Over a three-year period, the gap looks narrower: the Nasdaq is up about 90%, while Apple has gained 82%.

The company has occasionally shown an inverse correlation with the Nasdaq over the past decade, but what stands out this time is how deep and how persistent the move has been. The report says the only comparable period was the first quarter of 2024, when investors rotated into high-profile AI stocks and Apple came under selling pressure.

Options market points to more upside

Options trading also supported the view that Apple’s relative strength could continue. ThinkOrSwim data showed that roughly 1.5 million call options traded in Tuesday’s session, while put options came in at below 700,000. The number of calls judged to have been initiated by buyers totaled 543,000, while buyer-initiated puts were below 220,000.

According to Barchart flow analysis, net delta exposure — a measure of how sensitive option value is to changes in Apple’s share price — became heavily concentrated in bullish positions. Data from SpotGamma and Cboe LiveVol also indicated that trading volume supported the trend, with Apple options ranking as the second-most traded contract on Tuesday and volume running at nearly twice the 30-day average.

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