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First estimate after legal overhaul

Crypto trading in Russia could reach 4 trillion rubles in transaction volume on regulated local exchanges in the first 12 months of the new regime starting on September 1. At current exchange rates, that amount is roughly equal to $46.4 billion.

The projection is based on an assessment by Sber, Russia's largest bank. According to Anatoly Popov, vice chairman of the bank's management board, as quoted to TASS, regulated domestic crypto transactions could rise to around 7.5 trillion rubles by 2029.

Popov said the main reason the initial estimate remains cautious is that a significant share of trading is expected to continue on crypto exchanges that are not regulated in Russia. That suggests that even after the new system takes effect, not all trading volume will shift to organized markets.

When do the new rules start?

Russia's new crypto market regulations will take effect on September 1 under a law signed by President Vladimir Putin on August 4. The move will create a clearer legal framework for public cryptocurrency trading in the country.

Which crypto assets can be traded?

On August 11, the Bank of Russia, the country's central bank, prepared a recommended list of crypto assets that could be publicly traded on exchanges under the new rules. The list includes Bitcoin, Ether and USDT, the stablecoin issued by Tether.

How will investor limits shape the market?

The rules introduce different access levels depending on the type of investor. Non-qualified investors will be able to buy up to 300,000 rubles worth of crypto assets per year through each intermediary, such as a broker, crypto exchange service or asset manager.

  • For non-qualified investors, the annual purchase limit will be set at 300,000 rubles per intermediary.
  • Qualified investors will face no purchase limit for crypto assets traded on-exchange or over-the-counter.

This structure limits the room for individual investors in the regulated market while opening a wider field for professional investors. Sber's volume forecast suggests the new rules will bring a significant flow to local platforms, while part of the trading activity will remain outside the regulatory perimeter.

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