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How will the three new indicators work?

Kalshi has rolled out three new transparency features for midterm election contracts with less than a month to go before the U.S. midterm elections. The company aims to give investors a clearer view of how active a market is and how closely prices line up with outcomes.

  • Markets below $10,000 will be labeled as low volume.
  • Brier scores, which measure how well probabilities in election markets align with actual outcomes, will be displayed.
  • Individual trades in election contracts will be visible in a live activity feed.

Why does the low-volume warning matter?

Kalshi defines low-volume markets as those below $10,000. Prediction market experts say that when trading volume is limited, prices can swing more sharply and bid-ask spreads can widen.

The Brier score will provide an additional performance benchmark by measuring how closely market probabilities match realized outcomes. The live trade feed will also let participants track real-time activity in a specific contract directly.

Internal data points to where interest is heading

The company took the step after observing that election investors were gravitating more toward local races than national ones. Tarek Mansour described the midterms as the "first meaningful prediction market election," while company data show that election markets have grown six times faster than football markets this year compared with last year.

More viewers than traders

Kalshi’s internal data shows that the number of people watching midterm markets is 5-to-1 higher than the number of people trading them. That suggests tools that improve visibility on the platform are becoming important not only for active investors, but also for a broader audience following the markets.

The company also launched a Midterms Hub in July, featuring odds for U.S. Senate and House races. The latest additions are designed to allow closer monitoring of liquidity and pricing quality as the midterms draw near.

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