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Pre-election cash payments move back into focus

With less than a month to go before the November midterm elections, U.S. President Donald Trump has put back on the agenda his promise to send $5,000 checks to every adult citizen, while also spotlighting two federal payment programs already under way. For the larger payout to happen, Republicans would need to keep control of both chambers of Congress.

The Trump administration on Friday announced a one-time $90 payment for eligible Medicare Part B beneficiaries, to be sent this month. Last week, it also began distributing $500 Obamacare rebate checks to about 950,000 people who bought unsubsidized health plans through the federal insurance marketplace.

Which payments are now in effect?

  • One-time $90 payments are planned this month for 20.8 million Medicare beneficiaries.
  • About 950,000 full-price HealthCare.gov customers are receiving $500 Obamacare rebate checks.

According to a Reuters analysis, 71% of the Obamacare money — a total of $339 million — is going to residents in 13 states where Senate and governor’s races are closely contested. Eligibility, however, is based on insurance status rather than how people voted.

Budget and authority questions shadow the $5,000 pledge

Trump said he would make the payment to all adult U.S. citizens if Republicans retain their majorities in the House and Senate after the November election. He did not say where the money would come from or which authority would approve the payments.

A plan to send $5,000 to every adult would cost about $1.2 trillion and would require congressional approval. Some Republican figures have also criticized the idea, citing its potential impact on the budget deficit, inflation and interest rates.

Polls show voter support is far from clear

Current polling suggests the proposal does not offer a clear political advantage. In a Rasmussen survey, likely voters were almost evenly split, 47% to 48%, on the idea, and only 15% said it would affect how they vote.

In a Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin, 70% of respondents opposed the payments. In an Economist/YouGov survey, 57% of registered voters said they did not believe Trump would actually follow through on the pledge even if Republicans kept Congress.

Past promises have also gone unfulfilled

In February 2025, the Trump administration floated the idea of a $5,000 DOGE dividend, to be funded by savings from cuts at the now-defunct Department of Government Efficiency, led by Elon Musk; no payment was made. A tariff-funded dividend of at least $2,000 per person, announced in November, also never materialized after the Supreme Court struck down the tariffs in February this year.

In a similar case, six weeks before the 2020 election, Trump promised $200 prescription drug cards for 33 million Medicare beneficiaries, but the cards were never sent. By contrast, Trump’s administration last year paid about 1.5 million active-duty troops a $1,776 Warrior Dividend, while pandemic stimulus payments in his first term were enacted with congressional approval.

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