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What are the key numbers in the Vivaldi operation?

Ukraine’s robot offensive in eastern Ukraine appears to have rolled back some of Russia’s gains over the past year around Lyman, in the north of the Donetsk region. Security experts say Ukraine’s 3rd Corps, which launched the Vivaldi operation in May, caught Russian troops off guard by sending heavy attack drones and remote-controlled ground vehicles behind enemy lines.

The toll announced in the third phase

Speaking on 28 September, Ukrainian Brig. Gen. Andrii Biletskyi said an additional 51 square kilometers had been recaptured in the third phase of the operation, bringing total gains to 176 square kilometers. Biletskyi said more than 2,000 Russian casualties were inflicted in the latest fighting and that more than 250 soldiers were taken prisoner.

  • The operation began in May.
  • The target area was the Lyman line in the north of Donetsk Oblast.
  • Drones and ground robots were used behind the front line.

What does this mean for the cost and logistics of the war?

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) analyst Patrick Bolder said the assault points to a major setback for the Kremlin’s goal of capturing Donbas. According to Bolder, Ukraine disrupted the logistics flow to the front through months of air operations and limited Russian drone use by securing control of the skies around Lyman.

The move reduces risks for personnel on the ground while adding pressure that increases Russian costs for supply, redeployment and defense. According to the source text, Ukraine is also targeting oil refineries and logistics hubs to raise the economic and military cost of the war for Russia, while Russia has intensified strikes on data centers, communications and energy infrastructure in major cities including Kyiv.

Deadline pressure is deepening on the Donbas objective

Serhii Kuzan, head of the Kyiv-based Center for Security and Cooperation in Ukraine, said Russia’s political leadership had previously set a year-end deadline to seize the Donetsk region, but the military is now said to want to push that timeline to March next year. According to Kuzan, Russian losses on the Kostiantynivka, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk axes account for 70-80% of total casualties.

How are robot systems changing the balance on the battlefield?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on 30 September that he praised the performance of Ukraine’s 3rd Corps and stressed that he wants soldiers to be replaced increasingly by ground robots and drones in the most dangerous missions. While security experts warn that this is not yet a decisive turning point that alone will determine the war’s outcome, they agree the operation sends Moscow and Ukraine’s partners a message that technology-driven superiority is still possible on the battlefield.

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