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What was Putin’s message at the Valdai forum?

Issuing a blunt warning over Kaliningrad, Vladimir Putin said at the Valdai foreign policy forum that if Russian territory were directly attacked, his country could consider using all the weapons at its disposal. The Russian leader said this approach applies especially to the Baltic Russian exclave, though a similar response could also be on the table for other regions.

Putin argued that Moscow was not threatening anyone, but said he was responding to comments by some Western leaders who suggested Russia was preparing for war in 2029 or 2030. The Kremlin has also claimed this week that NATO is preparing to blockade Kaliningrad, warning that in such a case all options, including nuclear ones, could be used.

Why is tension rising along the NATO-Baltics line?

NATO said the alliance is defensive in nature and urged Moscow to stop making nuclear references. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said the alliance’s exercises and activities do not pose a threat to Russia.

  • Poland said last week that a Russian helicopter crossed into its airspace in a region bordering Kaliningrad.
  • Lithuania said drone incursions into its airspace have left the public feeling under constant threat.

Western allies say hybrid attacks linked to Russia have increased in recent months, particularly in Poland and the Baltic states. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also said Germany is preparing for more serious hybrid attacks after an explosives-laden drone was found at Leipzig Airport.

Ukraine war and nuclear rhetoric came up in the same speech

In his remarks, Putin said the chances of international conflicts continuing remain high and again blamed the West for the full-scale war in Ukraine, which began in February 2022. The Russian leader said Moscow has been forced to defend itself, adding that strikes on economic targets in Ukraine were a response to Kyiv’s attacks on Russian oil refineries and ships in the Black Sea.

Putin said Ukraine’s refinery attacks have had an impact, estimating that they have caused about a 1% loss in Russian revenues. Ukraine says those facilities are being used to finance the war.

The Russian leader also said major powers possess weapons capable of wiping out human life, arguing that the nuclear risk has not disappeared. He added that the automation of warfare through artificial intelligence is making conflicts even more dangerous.

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