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Why did Bitcoin reverse course intraday?

Bitcoin climbed to just above $84,200 during Asian and European trading on Tuesday before pulling back in the U.S. session. The price fell about $1,000 from its intraday peak and traded around $83,400 as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.27%, its highest level since the first half of 2007.

John Williams, President of the New York Fed (Federal Reserve Bank of New York), said after the September move that there was no rush to act and that his baseline case for this year was just one more rate cut. After his remarks, the 2-year Treasury yield eased to 4.88% from an intraday level of 4.96%, while the probability of a rate cut in October slipped to 51% from 70% a day earlier.

What do futures and fund flows show?

Signs also pointed to weaker appetite for leverage in crypto markets. According to Coinglass data, open interest in Bitcoin futures fell to 628,000 BTC, the lowest level of the year, down from 763,000 BTC in early August. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $31 million in net inflows on Monday; Ether funds took in $17 million, while SOL and XRP funds combined attracted another $17 million.

Major altcoins were stronger earlier in the day. Ether rose nearly 2% to approach $2,720, while DOGE gained 3% and XRP added 2%. Even so, total crypto market value held near $2.87 trillion, with the technical backdrop below $2.90 trillion viewed as bearish in the near term.

Which U.S. data and oil-market figures stood out?

The Conference Board consumer confidence index fell 6.7 points in September to 81.9. The previous reading was 88.6, and the market had expected a slight rise to 89. The headline index therefore dropped to its weakest level since April 2014, while the expectations index also declined to 63.6, marking a third straight monthly fall.

There were also signs of cooling in the labor market. JOLTS job openings fell to 7.079 million in August, below July’s 7.335 million and the 7.23 million forecast. Markets are now focused on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, with expectations for 129,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%.

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury yield: 5.27%
  • 30-year U.S. Treasury yield: 5.60%
  • Bitcoin price: around $83,400
  • Consumer confidence index: 81.9

On the energy side, U.S. plans to offer purchases of up to 40 million barrels for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve weighed on prices. After stocks in the reserve were reported at 283.8 million barrels, the lowest since October 1982, WTI crude fell to around $90.50 and lost 2.25% during the day.

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